All Eyes On Iran
Two recent analyses from me on the bravery of protesting Iranians, PLUS a question: does this wave of demonstrations feel different to you?
Good morning.
I know I promised a normal newsletter, but I’m afraid I’ve been sick for the last few days!
cough cough
It wasn’t quite a cold yet I felt drained of energy and was very congested. Nevertheless, I hauled myself before my laptop to scribble down these words for you, dear readers, hoping that even in the midst of a lurgy, I can impart some knowledge.
I’ve spent the past fortnight observing what’s happening in Iran. We’re now on day 13 of the protests, which began in the capital, Tehran, on December 28 when the Iranian rial collapsed to 1.43 million to the US Dollar. This spread to over 100 cities in all of Iran’s 31 provinces, turning into anti-regime demonstrations.
One of the most striking things I saw was the photo of a lone demonstrator defiantly sitting on a street in Tehran in an attempt to block armed police from riding their motorbikes down the road.
The image harks back to the memorable ‘Tank Man’ image taken in 1989 near Tiananmen Square, amid mass student-led protests against the authoritarian Chinese government.
The US-based Human Rights Activist News Agency has reported at least 34 protesters and four security personnel have been killed during the recent unrest in Iran, and 2,200 protesters have been arrested.
On Thursday internet access and telephone lines were cut out in the country. As we know from previous occasions, this is when the regime, under the cloak of darkness, tries to suppress reports of its brutality.
Once again, this has triggered a familiar question: is this finally the end for the Islamic Republic? The anger is palpable and people are less scared of the consequences of speaking out against the clerical establishment. But I’m wary of the idea that mass desire alone is enough. We’ve been here before with other protests.
I wrote about this recently in two different places, from slightly different angles. In Middle East Uncovered, Faisal Saeed al Mutar and I focused on the structure of the Iranian state itself — a system deliberately engineered to survive popular revolt. Power isn’t centralised, it’s layered. The IRGC, Basij, intelligence services, and parallel institutions exist precisely to prevent a single moment of collapse. You can have mass opposition and still have a regime that grinds on, because it was built to do exactly that.
In The Spectator, I looked more closely at what’s happening on the streets, speaking to a woman named Rozita* who has been protesting everyday, because “these brutal creatures are not even humans, they are aliens to us and they are pure evil.” A retired Kurdish teacher told me that his pension is now worth only £148 ($200) a month, which barely lasts him 10 days.
Iranians are clearly more emboldened, openly chanting against Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and questioning the system, but they’re also paying a brutal price. Some analysts told me that much of the unrest is still driven by economic despair rather than a unified political project and if the regime were to fix some of those problems locally, the protests might fizzle out.
I don’t write any of this to dismiss the protests, quite the opposite. They matter enormously. I actually do want to be wrong on this! But I think it’s worth being honest about how hard regime change in Iran actually is, and what would have to break for that to happen, though it’s unlikely the regime in its current format can survive.
This week US President Donald Trump threatened again to strike Iran “very hard” if its authorities “start killing people” who are protesting. US and Israel strikes, plus a failing economy may just be the tipping point…
I’d really like to hear what others are thinking: do you see something different this time, or are we watching another round of a grimly familiar cycle? Drop your thoughts in the comments below.
Until then, hopefully I’ll be well enough next week for a normal newsletter. cough cough
This time is and will be different.
Economic pressures are not discrete; cannot be resolved in a vacuum.
Sanctions, corruption and inflation plus the drought have conflated into a mother of all economic issues that cannot be solved.
Violent suppression, notwithstanding the “ expertise in suppression” of the regime also follow the law of diminishing returns.
Kill the malcontents but fix the economy as violently you kill the opposition.
You have reached a phase where there is no legitimacy of the state apparatus. You have two sides facing each other:
1. The hardcore minority that is the inner core
2. The downtrodden majority that sees itself as aggrieved beyond repair.
3. The battle will be uneven but the asymmetry of weapons will be matched by asymmetry of numbers favoring the populace
4. It is a question if one side cries “uncle” sooner than the other side that “tires” of killing.
5. This regime is a “goner”.